AF8 [Alpine Fault magnitude 8] is an award-winning programme of scientific modelling, coordinated response planning, and community engagement, designed to build resilience to the next Alpine Fault earthquake.

While we can’t predict when earthquakes will occur, scientific research indicates there is a 75% probability of an Alpine Fault earthquake occurring in the next 50 years, and that there is a 4 out of 5 chance that it will be a magnitude 8+ event. Geological evidence also shows that the Alpine Fault has a remarkably regular history of producing large earthquakes. Over the last 8000 years, the Alpine Fault has ruptured 27 times, on average that’s every 300 years. The last significant quake on the Alpine Fault was in 1717. The next severe earthquake on the Alpine Fault is likely to occur within the lifetime of most of us, or our children.

AF8 aims to share Alpine Fault hazard and impact science and preparedness information widely, through communication and engagement activities, to increase awareness, enable conversation and build societal preparedness to natural hazard events in Te Waipounamu our South Island.

AF8 Programme Strategy

Who is AF8?

FAQs

The AF8 Programme is an interdisciplinary partnership between emergency management, science and communities. Our aim is to build collective resilience for the next large Alpine Fault earthquake, across the South Island. Led by the six South Island Emergency Management (EM) Groups in partnership with key science partners – e.g. QuakeCoRE: NZ Centre for Earthquake Resilience and the Natural Hazards & Resilience Platform – AF8 operates as a ‘boundary organisation’ connecting research, policy, and practice. It is co-funded by the six South Island EM groups and science partners. This base funding is enhanced with project sponsorship from the Natural Hazard Commission (NHC), and in-kind support from the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA).

Governance and leadership for the programme is provided by the AF8 Steering Group comprising the 6 South Island Group Managers, science and regional governance leaders, and a National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) representative. Emergency Management Canterbury acts as the chair for the AF8 Steering Group. Emergency Management Southland acts as the administrative authority for the AF8 Programme. 

While AF8 has no statutory role, nor will it take on the role of managing a response to an Alpine Fault earthquake – these responsibilities lie with the EM Groups, NEMA and their partner agencies – the programme provides a critical platform to enable planning and preparedness and has several key roles:

• Bringing together emergency managers, scientists, policymakers, practitioners and communities to build resilience for emergency events.

• Providing a conduit for the direct application of Alpine Fault related research to support policy and practice.

• Facilitating knowledge exchange and enabling engagement between AF8 science, local research, emergency managers, and the public.

• Translating and communicating hazard risk science to enable informed decision-making for planning and preparedness.

All of these roles and responsibilities align very closely to the National Disaster Resilience Strategy aim, which includes managing risks (e.g. identifying and understanding risk scenarios) and enabling, empowering and supporting community resilience (e.g. cultivating connectedness).