AF8 Hazard Scenario 2016

A credible science scenario for a 7-day response period after a future magnitude 8 Alpine Fault earthquake.

The AF8 Hazard Scenario

The Hazard Scenario (also known as the AF8 Scenario) is central to AF8’s work, where science provides a robust foundation for response and recovery planning, risk communication and engagement. The AF8 Scenario informed the development of the SAFER Framework, which was published in the projects second year, 2017-18.

The Alpine Fault scenario presented here details the earthquake source and geomorphic components of the work, which we term a ‘hazard scenario’. This describes a Mw 8.2 Alpine Fault event with a rupture length of more than 400 km, and c. 9m of dextral-reverse surface displacement. This event has been assessed to have a recurrence interval of c. 300 years. The last known major rupture of the Alpine Fault was in 1717. A range of co-seismic and cascading geomorphic hazards of the mainshock will lead to a wide and complex range of landscape responses spread across a large area and over a range of timescales.

AF8 would like to thank all the contributors listed for lending their expert knowledge and time in the development of this report and for their ongoing support of the AF8 programme.

The Alpine Fault Hazard Scenario outlined in this document is a key output of the programme’s first year, 2016-17. This report was funded by the Ministry of Civil Defence Emergency Management Resilience Fund 2016-17.

AF8 Hazard Scenario 2016